Analysts at CIBC World Markets say Alberta’s proposed timeline for launching construction on a new West Coast oil pipeline appears highly ambitious, with major regulatory, political and commercial hurdles still unresolved despite growing momentum behind the project.
The Alberta government aims to submit a formal proposal to the federal major projects office by July 1, secure designation as a project of national interest by Oct. 1 and begin construction as early as Sept. 1, 2027. According to provincial officials, oil shipments through the proposed pipeline could begin by 2033 or 2034. The project would transport up to one million barrels per day of oilsands crude to Canada’s West Coast, significantly expanding export capacity to Asian markets beyond the existing Trans Mountain system.
CIBC analysts Robert Catellier and Rogan Anantharajah described the schedule as reflective of a “best-case scenario,” noting that several key conditions remain unresolved. Among the most significant outstanding issues are negotiations surrounding the multibillion-dollar Pathways Alliance carbon capture project, consultations with Indigenous communities, discussions with British Columbia and uncertainty over restrictions on oil tanker traffic along northern B.C.’s coastline.
The pipeline proposal is closely tied to a broader federal-provincial energy accord finalized after both governments agreed on a framework to gradually raise Canada’s industrial carbon price to $130 per tonne by 2040. Under the agreement, the Pathways carbon capture initiative and the pipeline project are effectively linked, with each considered a prerequisite for the other. While Alberta is currently leading development efforts, no private-sector company has formally agreed to take on the financial risk and construction responsibilities for the pipeline.
Industry observers say the project could deliver significant economic benefits if completed. ATB Financial estimated that the combination of Pathways, Trans Mountain expansions and a new West Coast export pipeline could increase Canada’s real GDP by an average of 1.1% between 2027 and 2035, while boosting Alberta’s real GDP by roughly 5.1%. However, opposition remains strong among environmental organizations, coastal First Nations and the British Columbia government, all of which have reiterated concerns over potential environmental impacts and any move to ease the tanker ban on northern coastal waters.