Gold price weaker as bulls seek catalyst

Jim Wyckoff
Wednesday July 21, 2021

(Kitco News)Gold prices are lower in early U.S. trading Wednesday, amid a lack of fresh bullish market news that is causing prices to drift sideways. Bulls need a fundamental spark to jumpstart a price uptrend on the daily chart that is in trouble at present. Silver prices have rebounded a bit after overnight hitting a more-than-three-month low. Silver this week has seen chart damage inflicted. August gold futures were last down $8.50 at $1,802.80 and September Comex silver was last up $0.165 at $25.16 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. At mid-week the marketplace remains concerned about the new variant of Covid-19 that is spreading and becoming increasingly worrisome—right as many North Americans and Europeans are getting ready to take family vacations and as the Olympics in Tokyo get under way. Upbeat U.S. corporate earnings reports recently have helped to calm nervous stock market investors.

The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer and hit another 3.5-month high overnight. The USDX continues to be in a near-term price uptrend. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce after dropping sharply and hitting a five-week low on Monday, and are trading around $68.00 a barrel. Commodity market traders need to watch the crude oil market extra closely the rest of this week. If crude shows further selling pressure from Monday’s big losses, such would suggest a market top is in place. At mid-week the crude bulls appear to have stabilized the market, however. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.24%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

Technically, gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. Bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend alive. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,775.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,814.40 and then at this week’s high of $1,825.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,795.00 and then at $1,791.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5

The silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices have this week seen a bearish downside “breakout” from a sideways trading range. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September futures prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $23.825. First resistance is seen at the Tuesday’s high of $25.315 and then at $25.58. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $24.79 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0


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